September 11, 2005
Closer...
Every day, Romania creeps a little closer to joining the EU.
Here's the short version: Romania and Bulgaria are scheduled to become the 26th and 27th EU members on January 1, 2007. That's less than 16 months away.
But! The accession treaty has a special "safeguard clause", providing that if the candidates don't show enough progress, accession can be delayed by a year -- pushing it back to January 1, 2008.
And accession could also be delayed if any of the 25 EU members don't ratify the accession treaty. This has never happened, and it probably won't happen this time... it would create a major crisis if it did. But it is out there.
So what's the status at the moment?
-- Only two of the 25 have yet ratified Romania's accession: Slovakia, about a month ago, and Hungary, just this week. Given the sometimes troubled relations between Hungary and Romania, this was a nice gesture. None of the "Old 15" have ratified yet.
-- German Chancellor Schroeder, however, once again expressed his support for Romania's membership. This would be more encouraging if Schroeder were not in grave danger of losing his seat; Germany has elections next week, and Schroeder's party is running neck-and-neck with the Christian Democrat Union opposition.
Worse yet, the CDU is distinctly cool to further EU enlargement. If they win next week, then the EU's largest member will be run by a party that wants to slow or stop expansion. At a minimum, they'll probably push for activating the safeguard clause.
-- A recent (last week) EuroBarometer poll shows that only 45% of EU members’ citizens support Romania’s accession
Croatia got a support of 52%. (Croatia has, IMO, a much better reputation than it deserves.) Bulgaria received 50% and Turkey only 35%. Out of all EU members Sweden, Greece and Denmark gave the strongest support for Romania, while he countries with the least support were Austria and Germany.
Head of the European Commission Delegation in Romania Jonathan Scheele said: "I am worried by the 45% support that Romania has received. You have to try hard to become more popular. Romania is the least known country in the EU".
'You have to try hard to become more popular'? What is Romania supposed to do? Get a makeover?
(Seriously, this is something that deserves a post in its own right. Romania has a pretty negative image in Europe. Basically, it's Ceausescu, Dracula, orphans, poverty, corruption, and maybe guest workers. It's ridiculous that a country with so much to offer is stuck with such a stupid set of stereotypes, but there it is.)
-- The recent bout of mild political instability has not helped. The on-again, off-again elections, the Cabinet reshuffle, the constant blowing hot and cold on key issues (we won't raise taxes! Yes, we will! No, we won't!) don't look so good. I posted recently over at A Fistful of Euros about the EU punishing Albania for severe political immaturity; it's not impossible that something similar could happen here.
On the plus side... every day helps. The closer Romania gets to January 1, 2007, the harder it will be for the EU to activate the safeguard clause.
The next big hurdle? The annual report on Romania's progress, which will come out next month.
The odds? At this point I'd say they're about even.
Posted by douglas at September 11, 2005 12:14 AMI'm trying to add an extra stereotype among people I talk to (replacing an old one is too much to ask, but maybe they're kept as a stack and one will fall off the bottom) of Alpine meadows and bears; the ride through the mountains near Brasov is like something out of Heidi.
Posted by: Tom Womack at September 11, 2005 02:04 AMI'm trying to add an extra stereotype among people I talk to (replacing an old one is too much to ask, but maybe they're kept as a stack and one will fall off the bottom) of Alpine meadows and bears; the ride through the mountains near Brasov is like something out of Heidi.
Posted by: Tom Womack at September 11, 2005 02:04 AMThe trouble with Romania is that the last time EU-Europe paid much attention to it was when Ceausescu was executed; since then it only comes into the news if a) something floods b) it's election time (see? they're proper democrats now! or c) there has been a particular high influx of illegal Romanian immigrants (this last especially plays well in the UK...)
Croatia gets good press because Yugoslavia had been a popular holiday country before the troubles, several EU countries have lots of Yugoslav immigrants and it is neither Serbia (ethnic cleansing fascists) nor Bosnia (just too many problems there)...
Posted by: Martin Wisse at September 11, 2005 10:10 PMYou didn't have the most common stereotype that we have in Ireland, the conflation of Roma/gypsies and Romanians. Not especially helpful for non-Roma Romanians, since the Roma are well on the way to being as loathed as our indigenous nomads, the Travellers.
Hopefully they'll get in in 2007. Very high political stability can come later, after all, it's not like Greece was a paragon when it entered the EU. (Or now, considering the scam it ran to get into the euro)
Posted by: Barry Cotter at September 14, 2005 09:00 PMHere in Sweden I'd say that most people think of orphans, roma and poverty in general when they think of Romania. Not very fair (though I don't know if being known for sex, suicide and socialism is all that much better) or helpful if you want to join the EU. I agree with the previous comment that als, monasteries and bears is a better way to go.
On the matter of Croatia's recent readmittance to the EU accession track I can only agree with the poster that this is a country which has a much better reputation than it deserves. Although the government has changed since the bad old Tudjman days it's still unreformed nationalist and not being very helpful in the resettlement of ethnic Serb refugees. Admittance to the EU without solving this issue (ie resettling refugees and giving them back appartments/houses now occupied by others) should be impossible. Unfortunately, Croatia appears to be backed carte blanche by Austria and the conservative parties (catholics) in Germany.
Posted by: Oskar (Stockholm, Sweden) at October 7, 2005 02:01 PM