July 11, 2005
Fingers crossed
Claudia still has an ugly cough, but otherwise everyone seems to be getting better.
The boys are mostly sleeping through the night (though David wakes up at 6:00 sharp every morning), and I feel so okay that I actually went for a run yesterday. So, maybe we'll start posting again. (Or maybe everyone will fall sick again as soon as I hit "Post", so let's not count those chickens.)
In other news... there isn't much other news. It's been grey and cool and rainy here the last couple of days. Very unusual for Romania in July. The Romanian government has been dithering about whether to commit suicide or not. (Yes, really. Long story, and I'll try to post about it soon.) I have to go to the US Embassy for a presentation later today, so I must remember to shine my shoes.
Oh: Romania's GDP growth for 2005 is predicted to hit 5.5%. A bit more on that below the fold for the economy wonks out there.
Year GDP growth
2001 5.3%
2002 4.9%
2003 4.5%
2004 8.3% (!)
2005 5.5% (est.)
If we take these numbers at face value, Romania's economy has grown by about a third in the last five years.
Now, there are some reasons to question these numbers a little. And there's some context that's not obvious from this table. In 2001 Romania was just emerging from a vicious three-year recession that had reduced national income by at least 15%, so a fair chunk of that growth was catch-up. And a lot of the increase -- too much -- is going to the folks who already have most of the country's wealth and income. A lot of Romanians are only now getting back to where they were ten years ago, and a significant number are still worse off than they were even under Ceausescu.
On paper, Romania is not far from "Asian Tiger" style growth. But I've lived in a Tiger economy, and this ain't it. Bucharest is doing well, sure, but not /that/ well.
Some things are missing.
More on this in a bit, assuming we all stay healthy.
Posted by douglas at July 11, 2005 02:21 PMRomania isn't the only country faced with unusually cool and rainy weather in July. It is almost certain that the bad weather is going to be another in the long series of excuses for Croatia having bad tourist season.
I hope you are all well.
Posted by: Dragan Antulov at July 14, 2005 02:14 PMUnusual cool and rainy weather? it is not enough said, u can describe it as the month of the wet hell.
I mean, u were talking about ecomonic growth... well, step by step our life in romania is getting better, but if there are any fears that something might happen to this fragile situation, now it is time to face them.
Just look in the newspapers here, at the TV journals: Romania is under water, there are some terrible floodings happening at this time in the whole country!
Damn, in my whole life I haven't seen something like this, it rained and it kept on rainig at an alarming rate.
A month ago it was terrible what floodings happened in the west, in Banat area. Now the same thing seems to happen in almost every corner of the country.
People really are extremely worried about the economic consequences of the megafloodings... one big burden over Romania's finances
over 12000 houses were flooded
8500 people evacuated
53000 ha of farm land got under water
about 3000 water wells are choked by water and mud, and cannot be used
plus lots of roads flooded, road and railway bridges destroyed completely... i mean, DAMN!
only in 1970 something similar happened. but many fear that today is really far worse than 35 years ago
i hope it will stop raining, we had far enough of this. One thing I can assure you: wew will not doig so well after what happened this summer
Posted by: rosurfer at July 15, 2005 01:49 PMRomania's economy is surprisingly very resilient lately, and I think it will be able to get through the floods with not too big an impact on economic growth, which I predict will be between 5-6% this year.
The floods, however, are bound to cause a greater budget deficit or a large social and infrastrucutral cost. It is really sad to see that after a few years on the right track in infrastructural investment, a lot of that is going away... Hopefully, the government will use the flood damage to do some proper rebuilding, modernise roads, etc. I'm not too confident though, since the Tăriceanu government is bent on reducing public spending.
These floods are a sad situation indeed... it's really something Romania didn't need in these times of economic boom.
Posted by: Mihai at July 15, 2005 04:18 PMMore, please.
Posted by: Bernard Guerrero at July 15, 2005 09:27 PM