Halfway down the Danube

Mr. Muir,

When I saw the news about the Romanian Presidential run-off my first search for in depth coverage was not the Times or the BBC but a google search for “Muir” + “Danube”.

A few questions from the interested but totally unknowledgeable.

Just what exactly does the PUR stand for? I read your entry of June 15th and wondered if there are any updates on who the Humanists are and what they want. [and is Dick Morris still advising the party? How does he find the time with his NYPOST column and his American consulting work for, hmmm, well there’s his Post column anyway]

Under the Romanian constitutional system, can a minority government be stable if a member of one of its constituent parties holds the Presidency? [the Alliance + PUR + UDMR = 153 scenario]

Could there be friction between the Liberals and Democrats in the Alliance? I have read elsewhere that the Democrats were social democratic. Could there not be some future disagreement with the National Liberals over some neo-liberal reform?

Excellent questions! I'll try to answer as best I can. Romanian readers are invited to jump in (please).

Just what exactly does the PUR stand for? I read your entry of June 15th and wondered if there are any updates on who the Humanists are and what they want. [and is Dick Morris still advising the party?]

Mr. Morris has left the building... but his work may live on. Check this out.

In 2000, PUR got into Parliament with 12 deputies and 4 Senators, and became a junior partner to PSD in the governing coalition.

But then: over the next three years, 8 of the 12 deputies and /all four/ of the Senators defected to PSD. And PSD got so big and powerful that it no longer needed PUR. So in the summer of 2003, PSD unceremoniously expelled PUR from government.

But then: after getting spanked in local elections a year later, PSD began to get a little nervous about the general election. So they went back and talked to Mr. Voiculescu, leader of PUR. You may recall that Voiculescu owns a modest media empire. PUR was accepted back into government, and it was agreed that PUR and PSD would run a joint slate of candidates. About 1/6 of the candidates would be PUR, the rest PSD. In return, Voiculescu's TV and radio stations would support the government.

Still with me? Well, the result of this was that PUR emerged with /ten/ Senators and /nineteen/ representatives -- more than it had ever dreamed of having before, and far more than it could have gotten alone. (Keep in mind that PUR barely squeaked in past the 5% mark last time.)

And, surprise, surprise: PUR has just announced that, despite running on a joint slate with PSD... and despite having been almost slavishly devoted to the Nastase government and its electoral campaign for the last six months... it has suddenly rediscovered its roots as an independent party. And if you go back and look at the numbers, you'll see that -- d'oh! -- it will be quite difficult for anyone to form a government without those PUR legislators.

So not only is PUR bigger than ever, but it's almost certainly going to take over at least a couple of Ministries next year.

Shameless, treacherous, backstabbing opportunism -- and very successful. Morris' work, or Voiculescu's, or some unsung genius? I don't know, but I'm impressed.

(What does PUR stand for? It's hard to say. Maybe now we'll find out.)

Under the Romanian constitutional system, can a minority government be stable if a member of one of its constituent parties holds the Presidency?

Sure. Why not? In fact, it's probably more stable than a minority government that doesn't hold the Presidency (i.e., recent Serbia).

Could there be friction between the Liberals and Democrats in the Alliance?

Yes. They're united at the moment by desperate hunger for office, but they're really a motley collection of political "outs" without much of a unifying ideology.

I have read elsewhere that the Democrats were social democratic. Could there not be some future disagreement with the National Liberals over some neo-liberal reform?

Sure. Although it's important to keep in mind that Romanian politics are not driven by ideology. Real ideological differences do exist, but the most important things are people and relationships, not ideas. It may help if you think of the parties as "factions", rather than parties in the American or British sense.

So, one thing that helps the Alliance is that several of the key leaders get along OK with each other, especially Basescu and Liberal leader Stolojan. Those two actually seem to be friends (though in this environment, it's very hard to be sure). Contrast to PUR/PSD, where Nastase and Voiculescu were politely agreeable but not really friendly -- it seems to have been a "you're using me, I'm using you, we're all professionals" sort of thing.

I don't doubt for a moment that the PSDists will be trying to lean hard on the Lib-Dem fault line in the Alliance. After all, if they can crack the Allies apart, they're back in good shape. PSD + Liberals could be the basis of a solid government. They could force PUR and UDMR to compete to be their junior partner. Push the Democrats out and keep them out, partly neutralizing the hostile Democrat President.

Will they be able to do it? Watch this space.

Doug M.

Dear Doug,
I noticed on your web site a pic of your two boys, Alan & David and a reference to their "Aunt Shelia" and also a "link" to Allison's web page, which I could not access? My question is, I had an Uncle Sonny and Aunt Madeline with four children; Allison, Shelia, Doug and the youngest Pam. Could this be you & your family? Are you my little cousin? I Last saw my cousin Doug (Muir) in Conneticut when I was stationed at the Coast Guard Academy. Of course, There is Uncle Doug and Aunt Joan, along with Susan & Linda. If this is you, please respond. I would love to hear from all my cousins!
Doug McElroy
California